Critical Reappraisal on 2024 Presidential Election,
Arie Sudjito dan Frans Djalong, paper presentasi ppt international conference on Indonesian Populism
Analytical Framework: populism as political logic
i.Political logic (Ernesto Laclau, 2005, Mouffe, 2018) stressing populism as constructing ‘people’ and its ‘enemy’; political logic inherent in the production of collective identity, popular struggle or movement
ii.Discourse matters: populist politics articulated within certain discourse or no populist articulation without discursive content and context; or as discursive articulation as hegemonic or counter-hegemonic struggle; discourse as totality of articulatory practices in certain period and place—policy, public narrative, collective activism, either of hegemonising or counter-hegemonising project
iii.Populist politics—constructing us/the people and threats or enemies in antagonistic/agonistic relation
iv.Populism and democracy: what is populist politics in democratic practice?; trends inherent in populist politics (Arditi , “Internal Periphery of Democratic Politics”, Panizza edited, Populism and Mirror of Democracy, 2005)— as mode of representation disclosing trends toward(1) democratic politics or (authoritarian politics)
v.Recognition of the instability of power as empty place of authority in need of representation practice
vi.Political representation between the representative and the representative is correlative while referring to Pitkin (1986) it might take the form of (1) standing for or symbolic, (2) acting for or democratic encounter, and (3) authorization or state sovereignty over popular sovereignty
Relevant Scholarship on Indonesian Populism
I. Approaches:
Political economy/structuralist (Hadiz, 2016,2017, 2018); movement and ideology—mixture of economic and identity articulation (Hatherell and Welsh, 2019; Hakim, 2023; Bachtiar, 2023; Mietzner, 2020)
II. Actors:
Political figure, supporting groups, realigning with political party or coalition of political party (Jokowi, Anies Baswedan, Prabowo)
III. Competing Discourses:
National sovereignty (multicultural nationalist vs trans-nationalist Islamist; predatory oligarchy vs downtrodden Ummah
IV. Election matters for populist politics:
Common trend that populist politics revolves around election, as momentum for contesting hegemonic and counterhegemonic discourse (of economic development/policy responsive to economic justice and equality, national identity responsive to societal-ideological pluralism, state sovereignty responsive to global dynamics)
Why 2024 Presidential Election Matters for populist politics?
I. Relatively a radical break from 2019 presidential election, ‘political identity’ as electoral antagonism revolving around Islamism vs nationalism is disappearing , though in some cases such legacy remain articulated regarding the political attachment of Anies Baswedan to PKS Ummah and Jokowi to Prabowo current nationalism
II. Substantive transformation of populist articulators—Anies Baswedan turning into popular nationalism while prabowo into statist nationalism
III. Why such transformation takes place? Two mutually effacing factors: (1) post-pandemic construction of two opposing discourses, Discourse Keberlanjutan (Continuation) and Discourse Perubahan (Change) and (2) electoral opportunism for Jokowi’s grand coalition turning it into two factions earlier (2022-2023, Koalisi Perubahan comprising NASDEM, PKB and PKS, and koalisi Indonesia Maju consisting of GOLKAR, GERINDRA, PAN and later on Partai Demokrat ) and then 2023-Feb 2024 fixated into 3 competing factions with PDIP and PPP (Koalisi Indonesia Bersatu) after internal break between Jokowi and Megawati
IV. 2024 presidential elections then signifies the temporary fracture in Jokowi’s grand coalition responsive to the election and rather rapid consolidation of segments of civil society movement centering on nation-wide democracy and economic development issues, as evident in Gandjar-Mahfud Coalition and Anies-Muhaimin Coalition—the segments antagonise both Jokowi (threat to democracy, authoritarian) and Prabowo (oligarchic force, authoritarian as well)
Two Post-Pandemic Discourses: Keberlanjutan versus Perubahan
- Competing discourses in 2024 presidential election, Keberlanjutan versus Perubahan, built in nation-wide policy and public debate on the increased trend of oligarchic consolidation centered on Jokowi’s macro-economic policy (UU Cipta Kerja—bill on job creation, PSN-state strategic projects) with grand narrative of state sovereignty in economic, territorial and ideological matters, capitalizing on the propagated ‘success’ of health crisis-governance and tapping on ‘geopolitical crisis’ (Ukraine-Russia war, superpower contest between China alliance versus US –Collective West Alliance) impacting on Indonesian trade, national-international investment and territorial security regarding the currently unresolved tension over South China Selatan
- Tranformation of jokowi from ‘people president ‘into ‘global presidency’ (G-20, peace mission to Ukraine and Russia, etc); this transformation goes together with the crafted centrality of Prabowo (Defense Minister, GERINDRA) as geopolitics-oriented leader capable of preserving and continuing Jokowi’s turn to global affairs; while strategic ministries controlled by GERINDA-defense, Golkar-economy, investment and PAN-trade; moment for consolidating oligarchic forces and the rise of all president’s men (Prabowo, Luhut, Airlangga, Bahlil and Zulkifli Hasan); starting in the late 2022 the narrative of Keberlanjutan publicly echoed by Luhut cs leading to unconstitutional maneuvering for Jokowi’s third term, (prolongation of the second term), later on Gibran’s incursion into the election as prabowo’s running mate
- As response to grand narrative of Keberlanjutan either led by Jokowi or by Jokowi-endorsed candidate, public protest, dissents and debates on policy’s negative impacts culminate into grand narrative of Perubahan; comprising of segments of civil society movement and also PKS and Democrat which later on joining Koalisi Keberlanjutan; turning into electoral discourse as NASDEM joined and advancing the the narrative capitalizing on the rise of more organized civil society around Anies Baswedan—embodying intelligence, popularity and technocracy as former Jakarta Governor
- As counter-hegemonic discourse characterized by (1) opportunism and pragmatism of supporting parties as all the parties except PKS remain in the Jokowi’s ruling government and (2) relatively autonomous standing of civil society movement around Anies and later on Mahfud MD as two popular articulators for 3 defining issues (democracy, law enforcement and economic development)
Electoral Antagonism: State Sovereignty vs Popular Sovereignty
- Prabowo-Jokowi as articulator of Discourse Keberlanjutan; (1)keberlanjutan means that state must be at the center of development as political agency, people as beneficiaries of state’s programs , (2) the enemies of the ‘sovereign’ state are (a) foreign state or forces seeking to colonise or take benefits from weak, divided government and (b) citizens protesting or rejecting state’s programs as ‘antek asing’ (foreign agents); such construction of state enemy articulated in most of his campaigns and also by Luhut the mastermind of Koalisi Perubahan
- Differing from Prabowo’s articulation, Jokowi’s ‘cawe-cawe’ deemed crucial not only by his soft rhetoric and ‘TSM’ but his direct involvement/presence as symbolizing the ‘people’, which has for two decades been depoliticized, to complement Prabowo’s symbolization of state authority (strong, military type leadership) despite of his efforts at performing otherwise (i.e. ‘gemoy’, funny and caring grandpa)
- Populist articulation of both Prabowo and Jokowi discloses oligarchization of national economy (PSN, IKN must no be disputed, final solution to securing national interests in changing global political-economy) and further depoliticization of large segments of impoverished population as targeting by Bansos and BLT with the well organized mobilization of state apparatuses, village head, police and the military
- Anies is the central figure of discourse Perubahan, later on joined by Mahfud MD articulating popular struggle against discourse Keberlanjutan; perubahan means radical changing in development paradigm, governance and policy practice based on justice and equality ; root cause of the injustice lies in (a) oligarchy monopoly over policy-making and state-led programs, meaning national oligarchs are the enemy of the reactivated citizens, enemy is coming from inside, not foreigner , (b) depoliticizing of underclass segments of the population (rural and urban poor) by personification of popular sovereignty in Jokowi’s branding for electoral gain and continuously performing state benevolence through social-economic assistance
- Democratic-populist articulation of Discourse Perubahan illustrated in two electoral practices, ‘Desak Anies’ and ‘Tabrak Prof’—proactively engaging the youths and other labor segments of the electorate as reactivating citizenship in the relation of representation between Anies or Mahfud as leader (representative ) the participants as the represented.
- Strategic significance of Anies and Mahfud in the discourse Perubahan is to reintegrate democracy and development issues attentive to technocracy and rule of law, as mobilizing and reconsolidating diverse and fragmented groups in nation-wide civil society
Democratic Moment: Advancing organized civil society movement
- 2024 presidential election as democratic moment, relatively a radical break from the previous electoral discourses centered on political identity
- It presents 3 defining features: (a) radicalizing two discursive trends in post-pandemic Indonesian politics, (b) disclosing the fragmented nature of oligarchic consolidation in multi-party system relating to regular election as test case for popular legitimacy of national leadership, and (3) consequently, the structural possibility for advancing more organized civil society movement with relative autonomy in grappling with pragmatism and opportunism of political party during and after the election
- The call for more programmatic scholarship on Indonesian populism showcasing stronger realignment with democratic-populist politics in encountering oligarchic reconsolidation in post 2024 presidential election
